Is the Entertainment Fading? The Decline of Open-Play Goals from Open Play

Football match action
Wolves have scored 10 fewer goals from open play compared to at this stage last season.

A major talking point of the EPL season so far concerns the reduction of scoring in open-play scenarios and the way teams are finding goals more from dead-ball situations instead.

Comparing how goals have been scored to the initial 11 matches last season, we see 39 fewer scored in open-play and an increase of 26 from set-plays and penalties, leading to 13 less overall.

Examining the broader view, efforts on goal clubs are making have seen a staggering drop of 370 in open-play than at this stage last season.

Even with the notable jump in dead-ball scores, there have actually been only two additional shots created from them excluding spot-kicks, showing the efficiency clubs are at devising strategies to net from set-pieces.

Scoring Rates Show the Tale

The 301 goals notched in 110 games up to now calculates at 2.74 scores per game, which if it continued for all 38 games would be the least for since 2020-21, back in 2020-21 (2.69).

Yet merely 196 goals scored in open play averages out 1.78 per game and is tracking to be the least for 16 seasons, since 2009-10 (1.76).

The 2009-10 season additionally represents the sole English top-flight campaign to experience scoring more often from non-penalty set-pieces than this season's rate of 0.77 each match (0.79).

Which Sides Bear the Most Responsibility?

In terms of goals scored from open-play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have seen the most significant drop, netting only four in their first 11 fixtures, a reduction of 10 than this point the previous campaign.

Excluding Wolverhampton, the EPL's decline in open-play scoring is largely a trend among London clubs, with five out of the city's seven teams recording five or more less scores from open play than last season.

In fairness, this is primarily due to their scoring many scores at the beginning of last season instead of their genuine struggle to convert in open play the current term.

Conversely Manchester City have seen the most significant jump, with nearly all of their 23 scores this season arriving in open play.

Set-Piece Success

Looking at clubs that came up with the teams that went down they replaced. Play-off champions Sunderland have scored three extra goals in open-play than the Saints achieved in matchday 11 on their way to demotion last season.

In terms of goals scored from set-plays (not counting penalties), Arsenal and the Blues have experienced the most significant jump, with the two clubs making up for the reduction of five goals that they've scored in open play with an equal amount from set-pieces.

United have netted double the number goals from set-pieces as they did in the 11 games the previous campaign before their coach assumed control, while Sunderland additionally are more successful at converting than the fellow red-and-whites they replaced.

Man City appear not to have received the memo about netting additional goals from set-pieces, because they've netted three less than the previous campaign, like Nottingham Forest, although that might be down to the altered approach they've attempted to adopt.

League-Wide Trends

Six sides – Arsenal, Chelsea, Fulham, Newcastle, Tottenham and West Ham – have been this season's primary examples by recording fewer goals from open play and more from set-pieces, while City represent the sole team to defy the pattern to date by doing the contrary.

It will be fascinating to watch if teams continue to rely so heavily on set-plays as matches continue or if they rediscover their general attacking flair and begin scoring increased totals in open-play also.

Donna Hunter
Donna Hunter

A dedicated martial arts instructor with over 15 years of experience, passionate about sharing knowledge and inspiring others through disciplined practice.